← Changelog
Model

Model Release: Award Model Updates & Hall of Fame Improvements

We have made a major update to our award models to ensure they align more with reality. We backfilled the projections shown on the site to reflect the new model's projections, so historical values have changed. Note: all projections shown are out-of-sample and thus are not "cheating".

  • Our yearly award models (MVP, All-NBA, ROY) now consider team success, which can be a major factor in some cases.
  • Our Hall of Fame model now considers individual accolades won (MVPs and All-NBA for now) as well as finals appearances and championships won. These changes allow the model to better separate players with strong peaks from players with good longevity, and also allow it to better project players who have played pivotal roles in deep playoff runs.

Below are the biggest gainers and droppers in Hall of Fame probability as a result of these changes:

Biggest Risers

Player Old HOF% New HOF% Change All-NBA Sel. Finals App. Champ.
Klay Thompson 0.8% 90.6% +89.8% 2 6 4
Kevin Love 16.2% 72.1% +55.9% 2 5 1
Draymond Green 45.5% 93.3% +47.8% 2 6 4
Pascal Siakam 68.0% 92.0% +24.0% 2 2 1
DeAndre Jordan 0.0% 23.1% +23.1% 3 1 1
Jalen Brunson 65.3% 87.3% +22.0% 2 0 0
Michael Porter Jr. 11.0% 24.9% +13.9% 0 1 1
Rudy Gobert 57.9% 71.8% +13.9% 4 0 0
Jaylen Brown 83.6% 96.6% +13.0% 1 2 1
Tyler Herro 29.1% 39.1% +10.0% 0 2 0

Biggest Fallers

Player Old HOF% New HOF% Change All-NBA Sel. Finals App. Champ.
Mike Conley 65.3% 1.7% -63.6% 0 0 0
Jrue Holiday 97.0% 47.9% -49.1% 0 2 2
Scottie Barnes 84.0% 47.0% -37.0% 0 0 0
CJ McCollum 74.8% 37.8% -37.0% 0 0 0
Kyle Lowry 71.3% 37.1% -34.2% 1 2 1
Nikola Vučević 88.3% 55.6% -32.7% 0 0 0
Brandon Ingram 74.8% 46.4% -28.5% 0 0 0
Trae Young 72.8% 44.6% -28.1% 1 0 0
LaMelo Ball 63.8% 36.4% -27.4% 0 0 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 34.3% 7.5% -26.8% 0 0 0